Tropical Storm Francine Spaghetti Models Show 3 States at Risk for Landfall

A storm system monitored by National Hurricane Center (NHC) experts has strengthened into a tropical storm as of late Monday morning, and forecasts show it making landfall in one of three at-risk states as the storm nears the United States.
Tropical Storm Francine is the sixth named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season. It forms after an unexpected lull in tropical activity that followed Hurricane Ernesto, which never made U.S. landfall although it created a life-threatening risk of rip currents along the Eastern coast. Francine forms as meteorologists have predicted an exceptionally active Atlantic hurricane season earlier this year, citing the El Niño weather pattern and uncommonly warm sea surface temperatures.
As of Monday morning, the storm’s maximum sustained windspeeds were measured at 50 miles per hour. The storm is expected to reach Category 1 hurricane status—in which windspeeds are measured between 74 and 95 mph—by Wednesday, and several states along the Gulf Coast are bracing for potential landfall.
So far, most spaghetti models—computer models illustrating potential storm paths—show the storm making landfall in Louisiana on Wednesday with winds around 85 mph, according to Cyclocane. However, some models show the storm careening west into Texas and another shows the storm veering toward Florida.
Dan Brown, the branch chief of the NHC Hurricane Specialist Unit, told Newsweek on Monday that NHC expects the storm to make landfall somewhere along the Louisiana coastline as a Category 1 hurricane.
States are already bracing for life-threatening impacts, as the NHC has warned the storm could create the potential for lethal storm surge in the coastline parts of upper Texas and Louisiana.
“There is an increasing risk of damaging hurricane-force winds in portions of southern Louisiana beginning Wednesday, where a Hurricane Watch is now in effect,” the NHC said in its most recent update. “Francine is expected to bring heavy rainfall and the risk of considerable flash flooding along the coast of far northeast Mexico, portions of the southernmost Texas coast, the Upper Texas Coast, southern Louisiana, and southern Mississippi into Thursday morning. A risk of flash and urban flooding exists across portions of the Mid-South from Wednesday into Friday morning.”
Some areas along the Mexican and Texas coastlines could see 12 inches of rain as the storm progresses. NHC meteorologists anticipate the storm to gradually strengthen over the next several days. The next advisory related to the storm will be released at 1 p.m. Central time.
In addition to Francine, the NHC is monitoring two other Atlantic disturbances. One disturbance in the central tropical Atlantic Ocean has a 40 to 60 percent chance of forming into a cyclone in the next two days. The second system, further east, has a zero percent chance of forming into a cyclone in the next two days.
Update 9/9/24, 2:46 p.m. ET: This article was updated to include comment from Brown.